European refineries are shutting down as Dangote gains control over the African market.

According to the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI), the UK's refinery production amounted to 4.104 million tonnes between January and July 2025, which is a decrease from the 4.207 million tonnes produced in the same period in 2024. This decline occurs as refinery closures and diminished capacity drive production toward a post-pandemic low.

The significant drop results from major closures, such as the Petroineos' Grangemouth refinery in Scotland, with a capacity of 150,000 barrels per day, and Prax’s 105,700 barrels per day Lindsey plant in eastern England. These shutdowns have transformed the refining landscape across Europe, impacting trade routes and gasoline supply chains.

Between January and July, the production of fell by 58,000 tonnes, reaching 1.201 million tonnes, while gasoil production decreased by 92,000 tonnes to stand at 1.357 million tonnes. Although there were slight rises in the production of jet-kerosene and fuel oil which somewhat mitigated the overall decrease, the overarching pattern remains unchanged: the UK is increasingly relying on imports.

Notably, the average net imports of gasoline increased by 24,000 tonnes per month, reaching 805,000 tonnes. Concurrently, exports decreased to 344,000 tonnes per month, marking their lowest point in over five years. In addition, UK gasoline reserves dropped to a 38-month low of 795,000 tonnes in July, highlighting the tightness in supply.

As Europe faces challenges with decreasing refining capabilities, Africa is experiencing a significant change, spearheaded by Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery, which has a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. This large-scale refinery has emerged as a key player in the regional supply chain, providing consistent product distribution even as opportunities for arbitrage diminish in Europe.